Cantonese fury

My late mother spoke passable Cantonese (I would describe my own Cantonese as adequate but not good); one of her mahjong friends spoke none; she spoke Yangzhou dialect, barely comprehensible even in my mother’s circle of Shanghainese friends, but her husband was MCTam, a successful horse trainer (stable chief) of HK Jockey Club, with high pay, and social status beyond typical expectation because of attention horse training received from punters, and contact with horse owners, typically rich people with slight hints of the dark side. Mrs Tam had some passport issue which I wont explain and was hauled to immigration dept for questioning, and my mother went along to translate. The girl in the office was extremely rude, dismissing Mrs Tam as some country immigrant from Mainland (in SG this meant Malaya; in HK this meant…), until time to fill in a form with address “you live in the Jockey Club staff quarters?” “her husband is MCTam” my mother said, with some malicious pleasure at the girl’s obvious discomfiture as she became courteous, as she should have been from the start.

I relate this to show certain unique aspect of HK culture, which used to cover more than 50million people, with large communities in North American urban centres NY, Toronto, Vancouver, LA… Today the number is still large, yet the communities are dying, swamped by new, mandarin speaking immigrants from Mainland. The older people in Chinatown speak cantonese still, but their kids do not, and there are few new cantonese speaking immigrants to take their place. Before China had diplomatic relation with USA, the very large immigration quota for China was mainly taken by Taiwanese and Hongkees, allowing large cantonese and Taiwanese communities to develop, but after 40 years of the new quota distribution… In the mean time, Guangdong province, the hinterland of cantonese population, has joined the rest of Mainland: the young might speak a smattering of cantonese, their children none; further, new cities like Shunzhen are mandarin speaking. HK is now the lone place in the world where cantonese not only dominates, but regards it politically incorrect to reduce its use to promote the economically more useful English and Mandarin.

HK used to have cultural influence well beyond its size – it was rich while Mainland was poor, westernized (partially at least) when Mainland was backward, it had its own movie stars, singers, that were more popular in Mainland than Mainland stars….

In economic issues, Tung Chee Hua actually had many ideas: he wanted to build 85K apartments per year to allow most hongkees to own property; he wanted to build a cyberport (contract was given to Richard li, who BTW uses a Singapore company as the vehicle to control his business empire), chip manufacturing (the person that won the contract was criticized as land grabber – he moved to shanghai), herbal medicine R&D centre… partly due to sheer bad luck – his term had Asian financial crisis, wall street dotcom crash, sars… he achieved none of this, but the more important reason was HK was too used to making fortunes in real estate and finance and did not have the combination of skill and attitudes to adjust to new reality. His successor Donald Tsang did not even try – he got high reputation from defeating George Soros’s short sell of HK$ and share in the Crisis, and believed the old ways were enough; he loved hobnobbing with rich people, which led to criminal charges and jail after he left office though he was eventually found innocent. I can only pity his successors Leung and Lam.

The cantonese fury is easily understandable, but understanding and solving are very far apart. I am pessimistic, but have no wish for others to agree.

 

 

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I can no longer work for him…

added on 5 aug 2019 with all the mass shooting cases, it becomes even easier for a brave mouse to come out to bell the cat “we need a more prudent president who does not send incendiary tweets, a real conservative not a radical populist:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/15/trump-republicans-racist-tweets-1415952 if mike Pompeo or nikki haley wants to be the mouse putting bell on cat, this is a good time; for nikki especially – she could also be told to go home to work for democracy in india; so if they want to be president in 2021…

come to think of it, trump’s family came from germany; he too might want to go home to work for democracy; I hear merkel trembles at the thought… theresa may might not like it either

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one country two systems

1c2s was in intensive care since occupy central, and is now on life support. When gov makes concession but protesters up their demand, we r up for a very bad ending.

If after tonight the crowd go home and not gather without new provocation, hk can still muddle thru. If they gather again and persist in upping the ante, we r looking at another Tiananmen. the hope lies in most of the democracy leaders realizing that they need to restrain their followers now, while they still have some influence; they r themselves at risk of being swept aside by the tide

but as long as 1c2s is not officially dead, it can be used as a negotiation scheme with Taiwan – maybe HK 2s was not so good; we can have a different one with u, so tell me what u want, as long as u believe in 1c; as for Taiwan independence, they first need to define what an independent Taiwan claims as its territory; Jinmen and mazu were counties of Fujian province not Taiwan province, and in practical life they cannot maintain close relation with taiwan next to a hostile china. Taiwan guys r always very reluctant to come to specifics; in fact they often don’t even claim to be aiming for independence, only democracy, freedom, people’s will etc. if u try to pin them down too specifically they soon start to call u names

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monica baey

added on 4/5/2019 I find the result amusing, but I am sure many do not. Waiting for Straits Times to interview Monica about this.

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/eat-drink-man-woman-16/power-rah-monica-baey-make-nus-install-300-more-new-cctv-6038258.html

added on 24/4/19 the minister of education criticized nus for being too lenient with the offender (but did not discuss police leniency in his statement) and nus president apologized for not giving monica baey more support; I do not know what blogsphere followup might be like, but would like to point out these earlier comments as rubbish:

1. nus tried to cover up – the girl made police report so no cover up was possible even if nus wanted to; nus discipline board handled it from the nus perspective, whether the guy should continue as student, a separate issue from criminal investigation in the police domain

2. nus failed to instill good morals in students – by the time students enter nus they are 18-20, and males have done national service; while continued enforcement of common moral values is within the brief of all organizations, one would expect character formation to occur earlier

3. parents would not want their kids to go to nus because of its leniency towards offenders – there have been past cases, and the penalties applied were similar;

https://observer.news/featured/25-cases-involving-insult-and-outrage-of-modesty-cases-in-nus-from-2015-2018/

whether these cases affected student recruitment is beyond my knowledge domain, but researchers and reporters might want to follow these

why did the blogsphere focus on nus leniency not police? guess universities are softer targets

further added 24/4/19

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/singapore/tan-kin-lian-says-voyeur-and-his-parents-are-the-victims-of-nus-sexual-misconduct-case/ar-BBWe3fv?ocid=spartandhp

backflow occurring; he overstates the case, understandable considering how one sided the opinions have been

————————————–

After the boyfriend of another girl in the dormitory filmed her taking shower using iphone under the door:

I’m the one suffering in fear of going (to the) toilet alone and having flashbacks of your deed.
Monica is asking for NUS to implement two things, in a series of Instagram Stories she shared on Saturday:
Implement clearer campus policies to protect students against sexual misconduct, including stricter punishments, more visibility on how cases have been handled, education for students on sexual harassment and respectful relationships, and an official sexual crime code of conduct
Better support for victims of sexual harassment in NUS, including setting up a one-stop office providing free services for sexual misconduct victims such as befrienders who are professionally trained to provide information and support at hospitals, police stations and courts
She noted that such victim support is provided at women’s group AWARE Singapore’s Sexual Assault Care Centre.

two questions came to my mind

1. if NUS does these two things, does she expect to stop fear of going to toilet alone and having flashbacks?
2. did she ask for help from AWARE Singapore’s Sexual Assault Care Centre? was it useful?

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Lky congress 1985

lky/1985/lky1009.doc
Therefore America will find that the putting up of tariff barriers is not
enough. She will have to go one step further: she will have to be the policeman,
to enforce order over her sphere of influence, of the world outside the Soviet
bloc.
After World War I the US left the league of Nations and withdrew into
isolationism. Nevertheless, inexorably, she was again drawn into the vortex of
war by December 1941.
The Soviet Union, since world War II, dominates her allies as satellites in
Comecon. The Soviets also maintain the balance between them and the other
aspiring communist societies like Cuba, Vietnam and Ethiopia. In like manner,
without adjustments through open and fair trade, the US must enforce some kind
of dominance on her own allies in Europe and Japan. And America and Europe
together must police and keep the peace between the other jostling and
contending societies in Asia, Africa and Latin America. The more dynamic
countries, prevented from thriving through trade, must be prevented from rechannelling
their energies towards expansion of their territory or of their
influence to get assured markets. Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for the
rest of the world, the US Constitution enshrines a system of open government
13
lky/1985/lky1009.doc
which does not allow its leaders to exercise such dominion over other countries
and governments in the same way that leaders of totalitarian states can.
Let us not forget that protectionism and less trade mean less growth for the
developing countries. This means debt burdens cannot be discharged. Defaults
may be unavoidable, with incalculable consequences for the international banking
system. Even if the banks survive the upheavals, these developing countries will
have to abandon all thoughts of liberalisation towards plurality and more
democratic freedoms. Severe or repressive government is the other side of
austere or negative economic growth.
An over-strong dollar has caused the huge trade deficits. A volatile and
speculative foreign exchange market has exaggerated the factors working
towards a strong dollar. The recent meeting in New York of the G5, Finance
Ministers of five largest industrial nations, has given grounds for optimism that
the over-valued dollar can be brought down by concerted action of the G5
Finance Ministers and their Central Banks. Congress should stay its hand and
allow these efforts time to work.

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Trump and KGB

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70 years young

with the 92 year old mahathir taking power next door and cancelling high speed rail project, LHL is no doubt disappointed that the efforts invested in the close relationship with najib (and the real estate buys around jurong east made by SG government and individuals) will not pay off, but in one way mahathir is helping LHL greatly: it is no longer urgent to hand over to a successor – he is after all 25 years younger than mahathir; it is now no problem at all to serve as PM well into his 70s – there is always some issue of whether his health continues to hold up as years pass by, but then, younger leaders can suddenly take ill, like Heng Swee Keat and Tan Chuan Jin; so just keep fingers crossed and carry on

he has already said a successor will be designated before the next election; going by the precedents of GCT and himself: GCT was designated by LKY in 1984 when he was given the job of running the election campaign that year; when the votes turned out to be somewhat disappointing on election night, he was visibly nervous (as were his associates with him that night), but LKY quickly settled this by praising the electorate’s mature voting pattern (voting opposition in districts where PAP candidates were not at risk, and where opposition was already entrenched, withholding where things were closer); GCT was finally given the baton in 1990; LHL was singled out by GCT as most promising almost immediately, so his apprenticeship was even longer. We do not know whether he would have taken over faster if he did not get cancer in 1993.

therefore whoever chosen by LHL is likely to succeed only after two elections, e.g., 2025-6, when LHL will be about 75

added on 29/9/2018 Law minister shanmugan caused some embarrassment when he advised the audience at a corporate governance conference to watch who gets elected as the next PAP secretary general – the report in one news site was quickly withdrawn and replaced next morning with the statement deleted, meaning there will not be a change of secretary general; a later report than asked people to watch who becomes the next first assistant secretary general; this did not get withdrawn, but also did not cause a stir (nor did the first one, including the withdrawal; to most readers, the concept of party secretary general merely draws a blank)

assuming that in the Dec 2018 party congress someone does get elected as first assistant secretary general in place of Teo Chee Hian, he/she would be in charge of the next election campaign, expected in 2rd half of 2019; good or at least adequate performance would cement his/her status as successor, but we do not know how long the apprenticeship would last

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朝鲜

习金大连会面 我觉得同川普沟通不顺利 要找些中国支持的新策略

金再度說明實現朝鮮半島非核化是北韓始終如一明確立場,只要各方消除對北韓的敵意政策和安全威脅,北韓沒必要擁核,非核化是可以實現的. 希望透過北韓與美國對話建立互信,各方負責任採取分階段,同步性措施,全面推進以政治來解決朝鮮半島問題進程,最終實現非核化及長久和平-这些虽然没变,似乎他在准备破局

消息传出说三个美国公民即将释放,那时显示他预料金川会成功.川普说不考虑撤军后情形改变,放人已经不急迫.似乎美方没有提出阶段,同步的让步配合北韩的阶段废核.美方盛传朝鲜因为经济制裁压力愿意废核,似乎没考虑到制裁最大压力是中朝贸易减缩,而中美贸易纠纷引出中不再配合美国制裁政策的空间朝有机可乘

added 8 hrs later: Pompeo is on route to Pyongyang to finalize the meeting schedule and hopefully bring back the 3 prisoners; what can he give Kim to make it happen? Obviously, the announcement of meeting time/venue has been delayed because prisoner release was delayed;

my scoring – trump/pompeo acknowleding kim authority averting war, kim 1; getting prisoners released, trump 1; what promises were made? xi advised trump yesterday US side consider DPRK’s reasonable security concerns; kim wants phased, synchronized concessions both sides; wait see

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wang gungwu article on proposed chinese constitution change

I read the article with much interest:
While the change is undoubtedly significant, the real decision comes in 2022’s 20th party congress when Xi will need to be reappointed as chair of politburo standing committee and military affairs commission, and party secretary general. However, for some years the party has followed the practice of 7-up 8-down – standing committee members aged 67 and below may be re-elected while those 68 and above may not; if this rule is retained, Li Keqiang, Wang Yang, Wang Huning and Zhao Leji will remain, while three younger members would enter to become the new leaders in 2027. Li Keqiang would presumably be the party and state leader from 2022 to 2027.
If Xi seeks to change the practice, it would be natural that the other two members 68+ in 2022, Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng, would also want to stay, so that there will be no vacancy for younger new members. This is why though the rule is unwritten, there are very practical issues and personal interests behind it so changing is not necessarily easy. We might recall that before the 19th congress there was talk of Wang Qishan remaining a standing committee member despite his age; but it did not happen.
It is possible that the standing committee would be expanded to 9 members, allowing two younger members to be added, who will expect to become President and Prime Minister after 2027. No doubt other possible solutions would be suggested and discussed before a decision is made.

I point out that a parallel case exists here: after Lee Hsien Loong steps down as PM, he could retain his position as PAP secretary general, and oversee significant decisions like appointment of new cadre members, election of central executive committee and selection of parliamentary candidates, instead of remaining in the cabinet as senior minister like Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong. Political machinery might be well defined, but the way it is applied can be varied.

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Lee Kuan Yew’s Method of Government

Mr Lee Kuan Yew, the founding leader of Singapore, passed away in the early morning of 23 March 2015; this is a review of his governing ideas.

Chungkwong Yuen

retired professor of computer science, national university of singapore

added Feb 2018

a few weeks ago GCT initiated an active public discussion of the succession issue by urging that the future PM candidate be identified in 2018, and the party responded by identifying a group of 16 younger ministers as the electoral college that will make the choice; LHL subsequently shot down the 6-9 months discussion period suggested by GCT; ST reporter Elgin Toh added further ingredient to the process by throwing the ideas of LHL continuing into his 70s and having one of the DPMs teo chee hian or tharman as an interim one-term PM; I assume someone is carefully watching the ST forum and other media to see how each of the ideas is being received

I am of the view that LHL would not simply fade away,  also that he would not follow his father’s course of remaining in cabinet as senior minister; my own guess is he would leave cabinet/parliament, but remain PAP secretary general; in this capacity, he maintains charge of  major party affairs, such as admission of cadre members, timing and agenda of meetings, election of central executive committee, and selection of party parliamentary election candidates; with him in the background managing the party, the government could have several one-term PMs before settling into a new era of unified power

I remain convinced that another constitutional change will be necessary on the elected presidency, and have already suggested the possibility of a proportionally elected second chamber i.e. senate whose president is ex-officio head of state

added May 2016

the stroke suffered by Heng Swee Keat has generated a feeling of crisis, which is about the next next PM: if as originally anticipated, Heng takes over soon after the 2020 election, he would be around for three elections, and would have time to groom his own successor team; now it looks likely that thaman or teo chee hian would take over for an interim period, with one of the fourth generation ministers then taking over for another interim period, before giving way to the fifth generation; the scenario is much less reassuring, unless an obvious fifth generation heir quickly emerges; this would need to be a already familiar figure with clear credentials; I will leave it to everyone to speculate who this person might be

Singapore Inc

posted on another part of the wordpress May 2015

Lee Kuan Yew sees the state of Singapore as a corporate entity: the citizens are its shareholders and the cabinet its board of directors; the former expect the latter to make money, but grumble about not being paid enough dividend and not being consulted about policy. The police and army are seen as corporate security departments, and the local press the public relations organ. Schools and universities are expected to train manpower useful for the economy, including R&D at advanced levels. Community organizations, including neighbourhood clubs operated by People’s Association, a government funded organization, are expected to provide healthy social and recreational outlets, and so on. They are all supposed to support national goals.

Much of Singapore’s economy is state owned – Temasek, the sovereign wealth fund, has majority control of most of the large companies listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, with considerable additional assets controlled directly by government departments like Monetary Authority and Port Authority(another fund, Government Investment Corporation, operates mainly in overseas markets). Major private local corporations like banks and real estate companies, and multinationals undertaking investment and manufacturing operations locally and even regionally, operate under strict government regulations. In land use and technological development, one can even see elements of central planning, and attribute the origin of such “state capitalism” to People’s Action Party’s initial coalition of western educated activists like LKY himself, and communists/chinese chauvinists working together, despite differences, for the short term goal of anti colonialism.

However, one can also find a more charitable explanation for wanting to have Singapore as a monolithic corporate entity: a small country existing within an ethnically different region need to somehow punch above its weight category, and having the nation as a whole competing commercially on the international market gives it at least a fighting chance against the multinationals, many of which are larger than most countries of the world and throw their weight about on all continents.

The broad span of the government’s control over the economy creates valuable career opportunities: civil servants, even army officers, are regularly transferred to government linked corporations, and sometimes, move on to local private companies or multinationals. While such opening doors depend on your academic qualifications and work experiences, it also depends on the level of trust you have earned. This issue of trust has certain unique Singapore characteristics which I will discuss below.

Various opposition figures and foreign journalists like to say that Singapore is not truly democratic; what do they mean by this? If the definition of democracy is that elections are regularly held and the party with majority support (measured according to some well defined procedure which does not necessarily mean “most votes”, e.g., Al Gore had slightly more votes than George Bush in 2000, but a well defined legal process eventually had the Supreme Court making the final decision that allowed Bush to take office) wins control of government, then of course Singapore is a democracy.

When critics say “Singapore is not a ‘real” democracy” and it does not have “real elections”, they meant that the opposition have no “real” chance of winning the next election. I wont go into the issue of whose “fault” this is as it lies deeply into the social structure (those interested can read this long article https://yuenchungkwong.wordpress.com below); instead I wish to address the question “if elections do not ‘choose’ the next government, what purpose do they serve?” The answer is they allow the people to give the government a “mark”, i.e., the vote counts indicate how satisfied people are with the government generally, and with individual or groups of parliamentarians. A drop in the vote would cause re-evaluation of policies and candidates, and allow changes to be made during the next term.

This might be somewhat different from political science textbook definitions, but it is a logical and practicable concept. It has various consequences: the group that maintains long term control will have to continually demonstrate its superiority over the opposition. Since the opposition has never been in government, you cannot really compare the past performances of two groups of people and decide which to support, so this demonstration has to be based on other criteria, such as educational qualifications and past experience before going into politics. which explains the process of parliamentary candidate selection being like headhunting

The tight control emanating from a small leadership group is sometimes described as Leninist: Lenin invented the practical organizational tactics that allowed a group of Marxists to successfully take over a nation. In this scheme, a tightly knit and highly disciplined party structure is first established, to which members are required to devote their total loyalty – personal loyalties and loyalties to common humanity are not only secondary, but indeed suspect and dangerous. The party organization is superimposed onto the government bureaucracy, military command, legislative bodies, trade unions and other community organizations, so that those in control of the party achieve control of all aspects of society.

Singapore’s ruling party is however a very different entity; it is virtually ideology-free, unless you want to call pragmatism an ideology. It is also not a political career, in the sense that people are not usually selected to run for electoral office based on long term party work; instead, the leaders interview people who have made successful careers in other spheres and put them up as party candidates in the next election, Singapore Inc selecting new members of the executive from its operational staff. Politics is just an extension of normal business careers.

In short, power and money go together, and political control is not intended to limit economic freedom, but to protect it, to encourage people to work “within the system”. To paraphrase John Wayne, if you have them by their wallets, their hearts and minds will follow.

Hearts, Minds and Wallets

In late 1994 the PAP government, then under prime minister Goh Chok Tong, adopted a policy of giving cabinet ministers, parliament members, senior civil servants and other public sector employees (e.g., at the time university professors were included, but they were subsequently decoupled from civil service salary scales.) higher levels of pay, on the twin grounds that salaries competitive to those prevailing in the business and professional sectors are necessary to attract managerial and other talent into politics, and better paid public employees are less likely to engage in corruption.

The need to match political salaries with business levels reflects a basic feature of the Singapore “system”, namely the inter-twining of public and commercial sector careers. The assumption underlying the system is that the Singapore government’s main task is to manage the economy, so that parliament members and cabinet ministers need to have the relevant experiences, which are best judged by their previous educational background and management related performance. One could say that the cabinet, being the board of directors of Singapore Inc working on behalf of its citizen shareholders, and the parliament acting as a kind of “nominating committee”, since you need to get its majority support to gain power, politics is just the process by which the “system” selects economic managers, a means one puts up with in order to achieve the more important end, almost regarded as a distraction. (Recall the somewhat innocent remark PM Lee made in the 2006 election campaign, that if too many opposition members are in parliament, he would be too busy dealing with them to fully focus on management.) Underlying it all is the premise that Singaporeans would agree to a “deal”: to accept the PAP way of doing things as long as the government delivers economic benefits.

Comparing the current situation with 1983 when I moved to Singapore, the people now enjoy more housing space, car ownership, overseas travel, recreational facilities, etc. But the new generation is also deeper in household debt and faces more competitive situations in the job market; part of this change is due to global trends, part is related to government policies like immigration. Feelings about the political “deal” would seem to be mixed.

Another unique feature of the Singapore political system is relevant: for over 50 years PAP has been in power, sometimes with no opposition representation in parliament at all. The opposition parties have no track record of running the country, and there is no historical comparison which voters can make to judge “which party will govern more competently?” Few opposition party members have high level managerial experience either. Thus, PAP has made a point to campaign on the premise that its people are “better qualified” to be in government, with prestigious university degrees, extensive administrative experience, and (usually not explicitly stated) better paid jobs before entering politics. Surely these people would need to be well paid to justify their new endeavours.

Like other conventional wisdoms, the high salary justifications are difficult to fault in theory but are also hard to confirm in practice. For analogy we might take for example the theory “Politicians must behave carefully; bad publicity is negative for their careers”, and then look at the extracurricular activities of Bill Clinton and Anthony Weiner, it is easy to see that logic could fail to match reality. The recent cases of two senior civil servants (plus one professor) being charged for corruptly receiving sexual favours, and one for embezzling money to gamble at the Marina Bay casino, also shows that people can succumb to other kinds of temptations, however well paid they might be.

A curious result of the high political salaries was that attractive parliamentary income has become a plus factor in opposition parties’ recruitment of parliamentary candidates, because the potential benefit relative to effort required is more favorable than on the other side: PAP has high qualification requirements and a complex process of assessing new candidates; even after one passes the hurdles, an ordinary MP has rather limited opportunities to move from the backbench into the cabinet. Becoming an opposition candidate is far easier. While for the kind of candidates PAP recruits the monthly allowance of MPs is a relatively modest sum, the situation is different for people on the other side. Further, since the introduction in the late 80s of the practice of putting MPs in charge of municipal business through town councils, successful opposition candidates control significant budgets, including procurement and service contracts that can be awarded to companies they favour.

Another curious result was a form of critical complacency: someone would rant about various government doings, get challenged to come up with constructive suggestions, and contentedly reply: “Our ministers are paid all that money to find solutions; I dont have to help them”. In other words, people can now use this issue as a free pass to justify emotionalism and failure of constructiveness. In fact, one could just as easily say “Our ministers are paid all that money to understand the situation; I dont have to”. It is difficult to have a process of “engagement” and ‘national conversation” if such a mentality prevails.

added on 7/8/2018 – recently Goh Chok Tong stirred the issue up again saying how important that ministers must be well paid, even that they are currently underpaid; public reaction was not very good; while I have no wish to discuss whether he is right or wrong, I propose a scheme whereby “salary” is reduced while housing and car are provided to compensate in whole or in part – the government rents the residence and vehicle an official owns and let him/her use them free of charge; so if an official previously had a high pay private sector job, he/she would have an expensive residence/vehicle, and the rental the government pays him/her would be high, and he/she suffers no loss in standard of living joining public sector

Earning Trust

In most east asian countries, personal connections play a very important role in all social activities including politics; while formal party structures put forward a public face, the real decisions are often made through behind-the-scene manoeuvres. For example, while a committee is supposed to make collective decisions taking into consideration the views of all members, it is common for everyone to know who is the most important member (not always the chairman), and shape their views according to their guess of what he/she wants so that they end up with a one-person “collective decision”.

In such behind-the-scene decision making, personal connections make it much easier to reach consensus, both because of frequency of contact in social settings and the existence of a level of trust, making more frank exchanges possible.

Personal connections arise in many ways, but family relatives, school classmates, national service team members, and past work or business associates are most likely to develop long lasting connections that will operate across different settings including politics. The top echelon of a society can over time build up a very large network of trust through direct and indirect personal connections radiating out from the inner core, and place trusted people in all spheres of the society in much the same way as the Leninist party system. Such a structure may be loosely described as Confucian.

In building up modern organizations and corporations, including political parties and government bodies, Asians have certainly taken Confucius’s talent promotion maxim to heart. Li Ka Shing, for example, has carefully laid out plans to divide his business empire between his two sons. While he also established sizable charity operations, he did not put his major assets into these in the way Warren Buffett and Bill Gates handled their fortunes. Despite long histories of public listing and shareholder participation, many important Asian business corporations remain family companies in essence.

Americans do use family connections too. While Buffett and Gates do not plan to hand over their fortunes to their children – among other considerations, this would attract huge inheritance or gift tax obligations, which are avoided if the assets are donated for charity – they do involve family members in their charity operations, and George W Bush obviously benefited from his father’s political status in helping him to attract the attention of voters, journalists, donors and prospective campaign organizers from the start. Americans merely have different experiences about what would work well and look good in their own society.

By using personal networking to identify work associates, maybe successors, the modernized Confucian system has frequently led to suspicions of nepotism, an emotionally charged word that reeks corruption and immorality in view of its Italian history. To some extent, the great emphasis on paper qualifications and examinations results, which are supposed to have unambiguous correct/incorrect answers rather than reflecting free thinking ability, is frequently a way to counter this, for the system to be seen as open and fair. Academic brand names are particularly important, (a practice now also increasingly adopted in USA and other western countries) and seen as more dependable. MIT and Stanford graduates fill the top positions in governments and corporations all over Asia, and Berkeley is over 40% Asian with many ambitious foreigners from East Asian countries among them. If you want to pass your company to your son, at least make sure he already has an Ivy League degree, so that people do not doubt he has brains and would be more inclined to agree that he is not getting the position purely because of the connection.

Confucian political philosophy hypothesizes that if leaders exercise moderation and follow procedures, they will be able to make decisions that compromise among various conflicting needs; by setting good examples of behaviour, they earn the respect of their subjects, who will generally behave themselves without constant resort to coercion and punishment. This is rather idealistic, and is criticized and ridiculed by the Legalist school, which believes in governing by specifying rules regulating all the significant activities of a society, and the use of generous rewards and severe penalties to keep people performing well and observing rules.

However, the main problem of the Legalist system is the tendency for rewards and punishments to escalate: if officials making mistakes are severely punished and also stand to lose their rewards, then office holding is a risky proposition, so that only ever more generous rewards can attract people to come on board; further, people who make minor mistakes would try to cover up and avoid the severe punishment, thus committing additional infractions that ultimately lead to even more severe penalties. When China was unified for the first time by Qin Dynasty adopting such a philosophy, its rule very quickly crashed under the weight of of its own harshness. The softer compromise system devised by the Han rulers brought back many of the ideas of Confucius, adding to it a layer of Taoist soft talk, resulting in a political amalgam that managed to hold sway in China for over two millennia until the arrival of western capitalism.

Today’s governments need to deal with complex economic issues, and it is a common experience that when a very large part of the economy is under government control, bloated bureaucracy, rampant corruption and gross inefficiency result. However, a computerized society makes it possible to implement a neo-Legalist system: Get a group of people you trust and give them a simple set of rules that cover all situations; however sophisticated and complex the situations might be, and whatever expertise that might be involved, one can always codify the knowledge into a set of rules that even relatively junior officials can apply, with just occasional high level reviews to modify rules to cover new situations and remedy shortcomings.

So the system is, like Mencius’s prescription of “those working with their minds rule; those working with their bodies are ruled”, made up of those who write the rule book and those who follow it. Such a scheme produces many benefits. The management system is simple, room for corruption is limited, and most of the work can be done by persons with just some limited training: check that conditions X, Y and Z are met, and grant the request. At various levels, the operational structures shuffle papers, move money and grant approvals in simple steps, allowing the country as a whole to tick along.

It is also relatively easy to assess the performance of the officials: the good officials know how to collect the wanted information for a case quickly to allow the relevant rules to be looked up, provide clear and courteous replies and explanations to petitioners, and give superiors the right amount of feedback so that they know what is going on without getting distracted with details.

But to move up, an official need to be more than just a good paper shuffler; he need to demonstrate capabilities and potential for the higher levels. So in addition to the operational networks, one also needs to be plugged into a network of trust: to have the chance to show oneself before higher officials and demonstrate capabilities, receive unofficial information useful for one’s work, and to provide informal feedback. Such networks are important everywhere, but particularly so in a society with wide spans of public control over the economy.

To paraphrase another familiar saying, “old ideas never die; they just stay behind another way”. Leninism, Confucianism and Legalism are staying with us and we have to embrace them, though not necessarily with affection.

1984

george orwell was wrong about england, but several major PAP blunders started in 1984 during the election campaign of that year

1. elected president: LKY had already reached 60 by that year, and this was then the public sector retirement age; so he had to face the question whether he was stepping down; the thinking at the time was to move to the presidency – under the then constitution, parliament would decide; he being who he is, the position would not be merely ceremonial, but it must be his legal background that made him uncomfortable, and a decision was made to enhance the position; the resulting controversy led to his undertaking not to be the first elected president, Goh Chok Tong’s decision to invent the post of Senior Minister to keep LKY in the cabinet, the elected president Ong Teng Chong’s conflict with cabinet, regular embarrassment about a 3-men committee rejecting candidates causing a no contest, etc

LKY could have just retired in 1990, started a newspaper column (modern idea would be blog), a charity/research foundation, a senate, and he would have remained the most influential person in the country, taking into consideration his son and his 2nd cousin were both in cabinet; it was quite unnecessary for him to feel insecure about his own place in singapore society even if he held no elected office; if he had been a blogger posting articles daily, every important person in singapore, the cabinet ministers especially, would have eagerly read them as soon as they were posted

2. HDB asset enhancement: during the campaign LKY got annoyed by opposition claiming “your HDB apartmen is on 99-year lease; you dont really own it”, and announced “HDB will stop building in opposition districts”; at the time I actually did not understand why that should cause anyone to worry; but the Northeast MRT line provided part of the explanation – no population increase, no new infrastructure; the Mathias Yao–Chee Soon Juan Straits Times Forum series of letters provided some more – poor infrastructure, lower HDB value; with HDB apartments traded on the open market (previous owners are allowed to go back and buy a new apartment from HDB after 5 years).. Soon Permanent Residents, who are not entitled to buy from HDB, buying on the open market caused the HDB asset values to rise beyond affordability

3. CPF: with people living longer, the idea of delaying CPF money return was raised in 1984 and initial reaction was negative; again LKY was annoyed; soon the idea of minimum sum was adopted, later compulsory annuity, which would have been workable if most people can still get a substantial part out in cash at 55; with the weak salary increases in the past decade or so (partly because of foreign labour, e.g., IT used to have highest paid new graduates, before the industry bought in PRCs and Indians) and low interest rate, more and more people found themselves not meeting the minimum sum requirement, and every increase in minimum sum value makes more people angry

2011

much of PAP’s recent electoral adversity was self inflicted; the major examples I recall

1. James Gomez case 2006: LKY, Wong Kan Seng and George Yeo spent far too much time talking about a minor issue (LHL and GCT both kept quiet – they could afford to); the Aljunied voters punished George Yeo, and WP identified the electorate as vulnerable, put effort into the ground work and won it decisively in 2011

2. Tin Pei Lin case 2011: it was sound strategy to find some younger, especially female, faces, but the party should have made the effort to find someone with a track record as a political operator in her own right, not just a polished presenter with management consultancy experience recommended by a personal connection; I also believe if they introduced her at the end, after people have grown bored with all those familiar CVs of civil servants, generals, professionals, executives, etc, she might have enjoyed a better reception, so they botched the presentation in addition to selection

3. Joo Chiat case 2011: it was also sound strategy to replace old by young, but Charles Chong is older than Chen Soo Sen so the change could not be justified on that ground; Chen also enjoyed certain personal support which did not readily transfer via party loyalty; Workers Party ended with nearly 50%

4. Hougang case 2012: Teo Chee Hean dwelt far too long on Yaw Shin Leong’s personal and business failings, which Yaw’s former supporters preferred not to be reminded of, whereas upbeat talks about the wonderful things PAP would do for Hougang if elected, might have more fully exploited the unexpected opportunity; after the Hougang moralizing, the Palmer case was a particularly hard blow – PAP candidates are like anyone else

whether the party would learn from these mistakes, and whether it would make new ones in 2016, is of course to be seen; given the resources available; it certainly has the potential of doing much better

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